How to avoid overpaying in TCGs: calculate the price per useful card (and forget about the price per pack)

💡 Introduction

When deciding what to buy in TCGs, looking at the "price per pack" isn't enough. If your goal is to get specific cards for your collection or deck, what matters most is the price per useful card : how much you pay (on average) for each card that's actually worth it. This approach saves you money and impulsive decisions.

🎯 Key concepts

• Useful card: the one that gives you immediate value (because you'll play it, complete a set, trade it, or sell it easily).
• Hit rate: probability that a pack/box will contain at least one useful card according to your criteria.
• EV (expected value): a statistical estimate of the average value you get when opening a sealed package. Useful for comparing to the cost of a single.

Important: "Useful" is customizable. Define what you consider useful before purchasing (e.g., specific Rares, Alt Arts, key Trainers, etc.).

🧮 The formula

1) Above

Price per usable letter (envelope) = Precio del sobre ÷ Cartas útiles esperadas por sobre

If you define "useful = playable or valuable card", and estimate that 1 out of every 6 packs contains something useful, then:
Expected useful cards per envelope = 1/6 = 0,1667 .

2) Per box

Price per useful card (box) = Precio de la caja ÷ Cartas útiles esperadas en la caja

If a box contains 36 envelopes and you estimate 1 useful item for every 6 envelopes :
Expected useful cards/box = 36 × (1/6) = 6 útiles

⚠️ Quick comparison: if the single you want is €18–20 on the market, paying €24–30 for a "useful card" when opening a sealed card is worse... unless you also want the entertainment of opening it (intangible value).

📊 How to estimate "expected useful letters"

1. Define your threshold: what do you consider useful? (e.g., Rares ≥ €10, deck staples, limited promos, etc.).
2. Check rates and lists: look at set rarity lists and, if you have data, approximate hit ratios (don't obsess over it, use ranges).
3. Adjust for "your" utility: if only 3 cards from a huge set are useful to you, your actual "utility" will be low.
4. Use ranges: calculate with a conservative and an optimistic scenario (e.g., 1/6 and 1/4) to see sensitivity.

⚖️ Singles or sealed? — A practical decision

Buy single if:

• You are looking for a specific card (or a few) from the set.
• The success rate is low and your cost per useful card when opening sealed is higher than the price of the single.
• There is a risk of a reprint coming soon (and prices for stamps and many cards will go down).

Buy sealed if:

• You want entertainment and the experience of opening (subjective value).
• Many cards from the set are useful (high percentage of "useful").
• There are bonuses (generic promotions, good historical product ratio, discounted price that lowers the cost per useful card).

💰 Quick examples

Example A — Single is convenient

• Target: 1 Alt Art that is around €22–25.
• Box: 36 sachets at €4 = €144.
• "Useful" estimate: 6 per box ⇒ €24 per useful letter.
• Decision: go for the single (and avoid the RNG).

Example B — Reasonable Sealing

• Objective: Several playable trainers and 1 special one.
• Box: €120 (offer) ⇒ if you expect 8 useful ones, €15 per useful card.
• If each trainer costs €7–12 and the special one €20–25, and almost all of them work for you, opening them can be worthwhile (in addition to the entertainment).

🔄 Factors that change the calculation

• Reprints: increase supply; sell letter/stamp cheaper afterwards.
• Condition/centering: a poorly centered card lowers value (beware if your "usefulness" depends on possible grading).
• Commissions/shipping costs: if you sell or buy online, they subtract from the EV.
• Game meta: if a card ceases to be a staple, its "usefulness" (and price) falls.
• Region (EN/JPN): Printing, liquidity, and market preference may affect your "useful" rate.

✅ Express checklist (before buying)

• What do I find useful in this set? (define it in writing).
• How many "useful" items would you expect per box/envelope? (conservative/optimistic range).
• What is my cost per useful letter with these numbers?
• Does the single cost me less than my price per useful card?
• Is there a reprint or post-release dip window (2–4 weeks after release)?
• Do fees/shipping costs affect the decision?

❓ FAQ

🎯 Conclusion

The price per pack seems cheap… until you calculate how much you're paying for each card that's actually useful to you. Define your "useful" card, estimate your rate, and compare it to the price of a single card. That simple calculation saves you money and impulsive decisions.

🚀 Next step

Want more shortcuts and handy guides? Visit tcg-collection.com and find straightforward tips for better shopping.